<![CDATA[Budget planning plays an important role in the success of construction projects, especially in dealing with unpredictable fluctuations in material prices. This study aims to analyze and compare three alternatives for the 2024 residential construction budget plan using a decision analysis approach to determine the most cost-efficient alternative. The methods used include Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI), Regret (Opportunity Loss), and Hurwicz Criterion. Each alternative is analyzed based on two price scenarios, namely stable conditions and a 1.64% increase, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. The calculation process was carried out using POM-QM for Windows software. The analysis results show that RAB 3 consistently excels in all four methods, with the lowest cost in terms of expectations, potential losses, and optimism-pessimism compromise. The EVPI value, which is the same as the EMV, also indicates that the decision made is optimal without the need for additional information. These findings show that the use of decision analysis methods can provide a basis for objective, systematic, and adaptive budget decision-making in the face of market uncertainty. Thus, this study further strengthens the application of decision analysis in probability-based construction cost management in Indonesia.]]>
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