JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization
Vol 9, No 6 (2025)

Prediction Intervals for Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia using Monotone Composite Quantile Regression Neural Networks

Saputri, Prilyandari Dina (Unknown)
Azwarini, Rahmania (Unknown)
Adipradana, Dimaz Wisnu (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Nov 2025

Abstract

Rainfall data may contain nonlinear, complex, and extreme characteristics. Weather monitoring can be performed by predicting rainfall as the cause of flooding and providing early warnings to ensure smooth evacuation. Classical methods, such as ARIMA, are unable to capture rainfall data patterns. A standard method for forecasting complex datasets is the use of neural networks. The neural network method failed to produce a prediction interval due to the limitation of the standard error calculation. The use of the Monotone Composite Quantile Regression Neural Network (MCQRNN) enables the accommodation of complex patterns and the production of interval predictions through its quantiles. The crossing problems in the quantile estimation were also resolved. In this study, we utilized four rainfall datasets from different locations: Central Java, West Java, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra. The lower and upper bounds were compiled from 2.5% and 97.5%, respectively. The point forecasts are constructed from the 50% quantile. Furthermore, the point forecast and interval prediction were compared to the standard classical forecasting method, i.e., ARIMA. The results demonstrated that the MCQRNN model outperforms the ARIMA model in terms of point forecasting. As the forecasting period is extended, the interval prediction of MCQRNN tends to become more consistent, whereas the width prediction of the ARIMA model becomes broader. Hence, the MCQRNN interval predictions are also suitable for long-term forecasting. Further research was required to evaluate the performance of prediction intervals.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

joiv

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization is an international peer-reviewed journal dedicated to interchange for the results of high quality research in all aspect of Computer Science, Computer Engineering, Information Technology and Visualization. The journal publishes state-of-art ...