JURNAL TEKNOLOGI DAN OPEN SOURCE
Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Teknologi dan Open Source, December 2025

Predicting Tablet Drug Expenditures Using Python-Based Facebook Prophet in Pharmaceutical Installations

Maulana, Kaka Rizki (Unknown)
Widiyono, Widiyono (Unknown)
Darmawan, Arief Soma (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 Dec 2025

Abstract

The increasing complexity of pharmaceutical logistics requires accurate forecasting to ensure drug availability and minimize the risk of stock shortages. This study aims to develop a forecasting model to predict monthly tablet drug expenditure in the Pharmacy Department. The research stages include problem identification, data collection from historical drug expenditure records, data pre-processing, and implementation of the forecasting model. The method used is Facebook Prophet, which was chosen for its ability to capture seasonal patterns, trends, and holidays in time series data. Model performance evaluation was conducted using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results showed that the model produced an MAE of 3,621.25 and a MAPE of 4.93%, indicating that the prediction accuracy level was in the good category. These findings prove that the Prophet method is capable of providing reliable results in drug expenditure forecasting. The results of this study are expected to support decision-making in drug requirement planning and improve the efficiency of pharmaceutical logistics management.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JTOS

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Jurnal Teknologi dan Open Source menerbitkan naskah ilmiah. yang berkaitan dengan sistem informasi, teknologi informasi dan aplikasi open source secara berkala (2 kali setahun). Jurnal ini dikelola dan diterbitkan oleh Program Studi Teknik Informatika Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Islam Kuantan ...