International Journal of Cyber and IT Service Management (IJCITSM)
Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): October

Enhancing Market Trend Analysis Through AI Forecasting Models

Rosa Lesmana (Universitas Pamulang)
Indra Wijaya (Bank Negara Indonesia)
Efa Ayu Nabila (CAI Sejahtera Indonesia)
Harry Agustian (Seni Sejahtera Indonesia)
Sipah Audiah (Alfabet Inkubator Indonesia)
Adam Faturahman (Asosisasi Dosen Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
10 Oct 2024

Abstract

Accurate market trend analysis is crucial for strategic decision making in industries, yet traditional forecasting models often struggle to provide reliable predictions in rapidly changing environments. This study investigates the application of advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) models Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Random Forest, Decision Trees, and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to improve the accuracy and robustness of market forecasting. Data was collected from sources like Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance, encompassing stock prices, economic indicators, and sector specific trends over five years. The models were evaluated using metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to assess their predictive performance. Results show that AI models, especially LSTM, outperform traditional models like Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), offering superior handling of complex temporal dependencies and short term market fluctuations. For instance, LSTM achieved a MAPE of 1.8% and RMSE of 0.045, significantly improving forecast precision over ARIMA. Random Forest and Decision Trees also provided valuable insights into market drivers, adding interpretability to the forecasting process. This research highlights the potential of AI to enhance decision making by offering more accurate, data driven predictions and provides practical guidelines for implementing these models in real world market forecasting. Future research should explore hybrid AI approaches and broader datasets to further enhance forecasting adaptability across diverse market conditions.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

IJCITSM

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

Description

International Journal of Cyber and Service Management (IJCITSM) is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high quality and refereed papers which reports original research and innovative applications in all areas of Computer Science, Informatics, Electronics Engineering, Communication ...