<![CDATA[Abstract. Nickel mining projects face high risks due to price fluctuations and technical uncertainties, making financial feasibility evaluations more complex. This study aims to evaluate the economic feasibility of a laterite nickel mining project at PT XYZ, South Sulawesi Province, by incorporating price uncertainty using the Real Option Analysis (ROA) approach based on Stochastic Simulation and the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. The analysis shows that the Net Present Value (NPV) using constant 2015 prices yields Rp -109 billion, while using actual prices (2015–2024) results in an NPV of Rp -17 billion. The ROA approach, using the Stratified Stage Aggregation (SSA) method, still indicates that the project is not feasible (negative NPV and Option Value = 0) under the base scenario. However, simulations suggest the project becomes feasible if investment costs decrease by 38% or the underlying asset value increases by 60%. The price volatility of nickel is recorded at 6.47%, indicating a significant influence on the project’s feasibility sensitivity. In conclusion, the ROA approach provides a more realistic and flexible evaluation under commodity price uncertainty through managerial options such as delaying or adjusting investment decisions. Abstrak. Proyek tambang nikel menghadapi risiko tinggi akibat fluktuasi harga dan ketidakpastian teknis, yang membuat evaluasi kelayakan finansial menjadi kompleks. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kelayakan ekonomi proyek tambang nikel laterit di PT XYZ, Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan, dengan mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian harga menggunakan pendekatan Real Option Analysis (ROA) berbasis Stochastic Simulation dan Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa perhitungan Net Present Value (NPV) dengan harga konstan tahun 2015 bernilai Rp -109 miliar, sedangkan dengan harga aktual (2015–2024) sebesar Rp -17 miliar. Pendekatan ROA menggunakan metode Stratified Stage Aggregation (SSA) tetap menunjukkan proyek tidak layak (NPV negatif dan Option Value = 0) pada skenario dasar. Namun, simulasi mengindikasikan bahwa proyek menjadi layak jika nilai investasi turun 38% atau nilai underlying asset naik 66%. Volatilitas harga nikel sebesar 6,47% menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap sensitivitas proyek. Kesimpulannya, pendekatan ROA dapat memberikan penilaian yang lebih realistis dan fleksibel dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian harga komoditas, melalui opsi manajerial seperti menunda atau menyesuaikan investasi.]]>
Copyrights © 2025
