Engineering Science Letter
Vol. 4 No. 03 (2025): Engineering Science Letter

Forecasting Electricity Demand In Indonesia: Recommendation for Prediction Models to Support PLN’s RUPTL

Aini, Zulfatri (Unknown)
Rahmadeni (Unknown)
Alaqsa, Tengku Reza Suka (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Jan 2026

Abstract

The Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) prepared annually by PLN still shows a high error rate in predicting electricity consumption, exceeding 10% in various provinces, such as North Sumatra (36.92%), DKI Jakarta (24.87%), West Kalimantan (40.24%), and South Sulawesi (31.56%), due to the limitations of the linear regression method used in the RUPTL. This study aims to evaluate and recommend the best electricity consumption forecasting model based on artificial intelligence using a Feed Forward Backpropagation Neural Network (FFBP-NN) combined with six training algorithms: Bayesian Regularization (BR), Conjugate Gradient (CG), Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M), Gradient Descent (GD), Quasi-Newton (Q-N), and Resilient Backpropagation (RB), resulting in a total of 13 algorithmic combinations. The data used consists of RUPTL indicators for DKI Jakarta from 2018 to 2023. Testing results of the 13 training functions on the FFBP-NN demonstrate that the TRAINOSS (Quasi-Newton) algorithm achieves the best performance with the lowest Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.0000065546 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.06696%. This algorithm outperforms the linear regression method currently used in PLN’s RUPTL, which has a MAPE of approximately 21.14%. The second and third best algorithms are TRAINSCG and TRAINLM, with MAPE values of 0.09455% and 0.10020%, and MSE values of 0.0012160450 and 0.0012229340, respectively. The FFBP-NN model trained with TRAINOSS is highly recommended as the primary alternative to support long-term electricity load planning such as in PLN’s RUPTL.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ESL

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology

Description

Engineering Science Letter is an international peer-reviewed letter that welcomes short original research submissions on any branch of engineering, computer science, and technology, as well as their applications in industry, education, health, business, and other fields. Artificial intelligence, ...