International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling (IJQRM)

Forecasting Global Palm Oil Prices Using Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Approach

Rahmat, Usep (Unknown)
Sutedjo, Yenni (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2025

Abstract

Global palm oil prices exhibit a fluctuating pattern, characterized by both upward and downward movements that are influenced by changes in stock levels as well as global demand. These factors are inherently difficult to predict with precision, creating challenges for palm oil entrepreneurs in formulating effective business strategies. To design appropriate strategies, entrepreneurs require comprehensive information on global palm oil prices, including historical, current, and projected data. Moreover, the level of forecasting accuracy is an essential consideration to ensure that the strategies developed are both reliable and effective. This study aims to forecast global palm oil prices using the Fuzzy Time Series–Markov Chain method and to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the resulting price estimates. The dataset used in this research consists of secondary data, namely global palm oil price records spanning the period from December 19, 2024, to March 13, 2025, comprising 50 observations obtained from the id.investing website. The analysis produced forecasted global palm oil prices for the subsequent three-day period, namely March 17-19, 2025, with predicted values of 4533.25; 4513.82; and 4530.37 (in MYR), respectively. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.81%, corresponding to a forecasting accuracy rate of 99.19%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijqrm

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Environmental Science Physics

Description

International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling (IJQRM) is published 4 times a year and is the flagship journal of the Research Collaboration Community (RCC). It is the aim of IJQRM to present papers which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of Quatitative Research (QR) ...