Jurnal Computer Science and Information Technology (CoSciTech)
Vol 6 No 3 (2025): Jurnal Computer Science and Information Technology (CoSciTech)

Perbandingan Kinerja Model GARCH Dan LSTM Dalam Memprediksi Volatilitas Harian IHSG

Sitorus, Gabriel (Unknown)
Yolanda, Yolanda Angel lina Sitorus (Unknown)
Gracia, Gracia Domini Simarmata (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study compares the performance of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models in predicting daily volatility of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the 2016–2025 period. Volatility is an important indicator in assessing market risk and uncertainty, so accurate prediction methods are needed by investors, analysts, and policymakers. The JCI closing price data is converted into log returns and processed through cleaning, normalization, and sequence formation stages for modeling purposes. The GARCH(1,1) model is used to capture the nature of volatility clustering through a conditional variance approach, while LSTM is utilized to study non-linear patterns and long-term relationships in time series. The results show that GARCH(1,1) is able to describe volatility patterns in general, but is less responsive to sudden changes in volatility. In contrast, the LSTM model provides superior prediction performance with low prediction errors and high coefficient of determination values. These findings indicate that the deep learning approach is more effective in modeling the volatility dynamics of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) than traditional econometric methods, especially under volatile market conditions.   Keywords: JCI Volatility, GARCH, LSTM, Time Series Forecasting, Deep Learning

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Journal Info

Abbrev

coscitech

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Jurnal CoSciTech (Computer Science and Information Technology) merupakan jurnal peer-review yang diterbitkan oleh Program Studi Teknik Informatika, Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Univeritas Muhammadiyah Riau (UMRI) sejak April tahun 2020. Jurnal CoSciTech terdaftar pada PDII LIPI dengan Nomor ISSN ...