Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Vol 4 No 3 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya

Time Series Clustering of Rice Productivity Using Trimming Gaussian Mixture Models

Fadhlia, Sarah (Unknown)
Hendri, Eko Primadi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the application of the Trimming Gaussian Mixture Model (TGMM) for clustering monthly rice productivity time series data in West Java from 2018 to 2023. TGMM is a robust clustering approach that reduces the influence of outliers by trimming a specified portion of the data prior to parameter estimation. The dataset, sourced from Open Data Jabar, was analyzed to identify the most representative number of clusters using the Silhouette Score. The optimal clustering solution was achieved with two main clusters (k = 2) and a trimming proportion of 15%. The results revealed three distinct regional groups: two dominant clusters characterized by moderate-stable and high-consistent productivity patterns, and a separate group of outliers marked by low and highly fluctuating productivity. Cluster stability was assessed using the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), yielding values of 0.41 (bootstrap) and 0.545 (subsampling), which indicate a reasonably consistent clustering structure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of TGMM in capturing underlying productivity patterns while accounting for noise and outliers, suggesting its potential as a robust decision-support tool for data-driven agricultural planning and policy formulation.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

parameter

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya is an open access journal (e-journal) published since April 2022. Parameteris published by Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Pattimura. Parameterpublished scientific articles on various aspects related to ...