PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS
Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St

Forecasting Indonesian Monthly Rice Prices at Milling Level Using Google Trends and Official Statistics Data

Swardanasuta, I Bagus Putu (Unknown)
Sofa, Wahyuni Andriana (Unknown)
Muchlisoh, Siti (Unknown)
Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 Dec 2025

Abstract

Hunger is a very complex social issue to address. Alleviating hunger is closely related to achieving food security, which is a goal in realizing the second Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), zero hunger. The most frequently consumed food commodity by the Indonesian population is rice, which has fluctuating prices in the market. Therefore, price forecasting is necessary so that the government can take preventive measures against rice price increases at certain times. Research on rice price forecasting using big data from Google Trends is still very rare in Indonesia, even though Google Trends has great potential to reflect the public's search popularity for certain keywords. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the monthly medium rice price in Indonesia at the milling level using exogenous variables of dried milled grain prices and the popularity index of related keywords on Google Trends. The forecasting is conducted using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), SARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The SARIMAX model has the best performance in forecasting rice prices, with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 941.6933, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 817.9021, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.0620.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

icdsos

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics (ICDSOS) 2023 is organized by Politeknik Statistika STIS and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This international conference in collaboration with Forum Pendidikan Tinggi ...