Journix: Journal of Informatics and Computing
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2025): April

Data-driven MSME Success Prediction Using Decision Tree-Based Machine Learning Techniques

Sahrul Ramadhan (Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Muhammadiyah Bima, Indonesia)
Zumhur Alamin (Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Muhammadiyah Bima, Indonesia)
Miftahul Jannah (Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Muhammadiyah Bima, Indonesia)
Muhammad Akbar (Program Studi Kewirausahaan, Universitas Muhammadiyah Bima, Indonesia)
Rizki Fikriyansah (Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Muhammadiyah Bima, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Mar 2025

Abstract

MSMEs play an important role in Indonesia's digital economy, but not all businesses are able to survive and thrive sustainably. The low predictive ability of MSME success is a major challenge in formulating effective policies and interventions. This research aims to build a prediction model for the success of MSMEs by utilizing machine learning algorithms as a strategic decision-making tool. The approach used is an experimental method by comparing the performance of three popular algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The dataset used comes from a combination of survey and open source data, which includes variables of MSME characteristics. The data was analyzed through preprocessing, model training, and evaluation using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics. The results showed that the Random Forest algorithm performed best with an optimal classification balance. This finding indicates that the machine learning approach is effective in identifying MSME success patterns based on historical data. The main contribution of this research is the development of an artificial intelligence-based decision support system that can be adapted for the local context to support the sustainable growth of digital MSMEs.

Copyrights © 2025






Journal Info

Abbrev

journix

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Journix: Journal of Informatics and Computing is a peer-reviewed scientific journal published by Ran Edu Center, dedicated to disseminating high-quality research and studies in the fields of informatics and computing. This journal serves as a platform for researchers, practitioners, and academicians ...