Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics
Vol 6, No 1 (2023)

Model Simulation of Continuous Time Markov Chain Susceptible Infected Recovered-Bacterial Population for Cholera Disease

Aulia Maulani Syifa Nur Hidayati (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Respatiwulan Respatiwulan (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Sri Subanti (Universitas Sebelas Maret)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Jan 2024

Abstract

Epidemic is an outbreak of an infectious disease rapidly in a population at a certain place and time. Epidemic models are used to explains the spread pattern of disease. The continuous time Markov chain susceptible infected recovered-bacterial population in the aquatic reservoir (CTMC SIR-B) model is a stochastic model, which considers the effect of bacterial population. The human population are classified into 3 groups. There are susceptible, infected, and recovered groups. Then, there are bacterial population which can infectious the cholera disease to human. CTMC SIR-B model considers treatment and water sanitation parameters. The spread of cholera disease can be modeled as CTMC SIR-B. Cholera is an acute intestinal infectious disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Cholera can be transmitted through the human digestive system. The symptoms of cholera disease are diarrhea, vomiting, and dehydration. The dehydration if not handled properly, may cause death. The aims of this research are to build and simulate the CTMC SIR-B model for cholera disease. The result of the model simulation shows that there is no significant difference between various values of treatment and water sanitation parameters. The pattern of the cholera disease spread describes that the transmission of cholera can occur from human to human even though there is no population of bacteria in the aquatic reservoir.Keywords: cholera; ctmc sir-b; epidemic model; stochastic. 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijas

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science

Description

Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics (IJAS) is a journal published by Study Program of Statistics, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia. This journal is published twice every year, in May and November. The editors receive scientific papers on the results of research, scientific ...