International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Vol. 11 No. 1 (2025)

Modeling and Estimating GARCH-X and Realized GARCH Using ARWM and GRG Methods

Didit Budi Nugroho (Master Program in Data Science, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana)
Melina Tito Wijaya (Mathematics Study Program, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana)
Hanna Arini Parhusip (Master Program in Data Science, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study evaluates the fitting performance of GARCH-X(1,1) and RealGARCH(1,1) models, which are extensions of GARCH(1,1) model by adding the Realized Kernel measure as an exogenous component, on real data, namely the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 and Hang Seng stock indices over the period from January 2000 to December 2017. The models assume that the return error follows Normal and Student- t distributions. The parameters of models are estimated by using the Adaptive Random Walk Metropolis (ARWM) method implemented in Matlab and the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) method. The comparison of estimation results shows that the GRG method has a good ability to estimate the models because it provides the estimation results that are close to the results of the ARWM method in terms of relative error. On the basis of Akaike Information Criterion, the RealGARCH models perform better than the GARCH-X models, where the RealGARCH model with Student- t distribution provides the best fit.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijcsam

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

IJCSAM (International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics) is an open access journal publishing advanced results in the fields of computations, science and applied mathematics, as mentioned explicitly in the scope of the journal. The journal is geared towards dissemination of ...