Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan
Vol 7, No 1 (2026): FEBRUARY

Analysis of The Effect of Government Expenditure and GRDP on Provincial Tax Revenue in Indonesia, 2014–2023

Sintia Neno Maitasya (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Fia Shofiyatun (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Friyanedo Wahyu Achmadi (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Adinda Trias Ananta (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Nabila Putri Zakariya (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Talia Rahma Fadila (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)
Puspa Dwi Hartatik (Development Economics Study Programme, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trunodjoyo Madura)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of government spending and Regional Domestic Product (RDP) on tax revenue in Indonesia during the period 2014-2023. The study uses a quantitative approach with a panel data model covering 34 provinces in Indonesia. The analysis was conducted through Chow tests, Hausman tests, and Lagrange Multiplier tests to determine the best model, and the results showed that the most appropriate model was the Random Effect Model (REM). The estimation results showed that government spending had a positive and significant effect on tax revenue, while GRDP had a negative and insignificant effect. Simultaneously, both variables have a significant effect on tax revenue with a coefficient of determination of 42.29%. These findings indicate that an increase in public spending, especially in the productive sector, can strengthen the government's fiscal capacity, while economic growth through GRDP is not fully reflected in an increase in tax revenue. Keywords: Government Expenditures, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Tax Revenue, Fiscal Policy, Public Expenditure Efficiency, Regional Economic Growth, Panel Data Regression, Random Effect Model (REM) 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

bep

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan menyediakan para akademisi, mahasiswa dan peneliti untuk mempublikasikan artikel hasil penelitiannya. Ruang lingkup meliputi : 1. Ekonomi Pembangunan 2. Ekonomi Publik 3. Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 4. Ekonomi Industri 5. ESDM 6. ESDA 7. Ekonomi Ketenagakerjaan 8. ...