Perspektif Administrasi Publik dan hukum
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Januari: Perspektif Administrasi Publik dan hukum

Pengambilan Keputusan dalam Kondisi Ketidakpastian : Tinjauan Sistematis atas Pendekatan Risiko dan Probabilitas

Ayu Lestari (Unknown)
Avo Agnesia (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Jan 2026

Abstract

Decision-making under uncertainty is a major challenge in management, economics, and public policy, where outcomes cannot be accurately predicted due to limited information and environmental dynamics. This article conducts a systematic literature review of risk and probability approaches to decision-making under uncertainty, focusing on rational theory synthesis (such as expected utility theory, decision tree analysis, and Bayesian decision theory) and behavioral perspectives (prospect theory and heuristics). The review covers reputable literature from the last ten years to the present. The results show that the probabilistic approach provides a strong and adaptive rational framework, but has significant limitations due to cognitive biases such as loss aversion, overconfidence, and ambiguity aversion, which cause deviations from normative rationality. The integration of rational approaches with behavioral elements, through hybrid models, has proven to be more comprehensive and realistic for dealing with true uncertainty (Knightian uncertainty). These findings emphasize the need for a multidimensional decision-making paradigm in organizational and policy practices.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Perspektif

Publisher

Subject

Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice

Description

Perspektif Administrasi Publik dan hukum, Jurnal ini ditujukan untuk publikasi artikel ilmiah yang diterbitkan oleh Asosiasi Peneliti Dan Pengajar Ilmu Sosial Indonesia, merupakan forum yang menyajikan analisis mendalam tentang berbagai isu yang berkaitan dengan administrasi publik dan hukum. Dengan ...