<![CDATA[Understanding the determinants of CO2emissions and the real possibilities for energy transition is essential to supporting sustainable growth, particularly for the world's ten largest emitters. These countries present a notable paradox: despite high economic complexity and efforts towards green transition, their emissions remain among the highest, revealing a persistent structural dependence on carbon-intensive activities and thus calling into question their effective capacity to sustainably reduce their emissions. This study fills a gap by simultaneously analyzing polluting specialisation and green transition potential using two indicators derived from economic complexity: the Brown Lock-In Index (BLI) and the Green Complexity Potential (GCP). The analysis, conducted on a panel of the ten largest CO2 emitters between 1999 and 2023 using FMOLS and PCSE estimators, shows that a carbon-intensive economic structure significantly increases emissions, while a higher green complexity potential contributes to their reduction. Furthermore, while economic growth and the use of non-renewable energies intensify environmental pressure, the consumption of renewable energies plays an important mitigating role. By highlighting the combined effect of polluting specialization and transition potential, this study offers decision-makers a structured understanding of the sources of their emissions and the real margins for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.]]>
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