Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science
Vol. 1 No. 4 (2025): December: Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Scienc

Machine Learning-Based Spatiotemporal Modeling for Detecting Disease Hotspots in Primary Care Data

Rachmatika, Rinna (Unknown)
Desyani, Teti (Unknown)
Khoirudin (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Dec 2025

Abstract

Diseases in primary health services exhibit complex spatial-temporal dynamics due to urbanization and population mobility. Conventional surveillance approaches are difficult to capture these patterns adaptively. Machine learning (ML) based on spatio-temporal modeling offers a solution with the ability to detect disease clusters automatically and with high precision. Research Objectives: This research aims to develop a machine learning model to detect disease hotspots from primary service data in Indonesia, with a focus on improving prediction accuracy, interpretability, and relevance of health policies. Methodology: The primary service dataset for 2024 (5,343 entries) was analyzed using three ML models Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Temporal Random Forest (TRF), and Multi-EigenSpot with spatial (village) and temporal (week, month) features. Performance evaluation includes predictive (AUC, F1-score) and spatial (Moran's I, Spatio-Temporal Correlation Index) metrics. Results: The results showed that Multi-EigenSpot achieved the best performance (AUC=0.91; F1=0.86), with the detection of dominant hotspots in Sungai Asam and Beringin Villages. Moran's I value of 0.63 indicates a strong spatial autocorrelation, while STCI=0.57 indicates moderate temporal stability. Conclusions: ML-based spatio-temporal models are effective in identifying hidden disease patterns and have the potential to be integrated into national digital surveillance systems. This approach supports precision public health by providing a scientific basis for real-time location- and time-based intervention policies.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

GlobalScience

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science; This a journal intended for the publication of scientific articles published by International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers This journal contains studies in the fields of Information Technology and Computer Science, both ...