Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Kesatuan
Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): JIAKES Edisi Februari 2026

Predicting Indonesia Banking Financial Distress Using Ibar Z-Score Before and After Covid 19

Barus, Irene Sukma Lestari (Unknown)
Sarumpet, Tetty Lasniroha (Unknown)
Bayunitri, Bunga Indah (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2026

Abstract

Financial distress poses a significant threat to the stability of the banking sector, especially during periods of economic uncertainty such as the Covid-19 pandemic. This study examines financial distress in Indonesian commercial banks before and during the pandemic using the IBAR Z-Score model, which integrates CAMEL and RGEC indicators. Employing a quantitative explanatory approach with panel data from 32 banks, analyses included paired t-tests, multivariate discriminant analysis, and binary logistic regression. Findings show that 68.75% of banks were distressed pre-pandemic, decreasing to 56.25% during the pandemic, with no significant overall difference between periods. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) consistently emerged as the key distress determinant, alongside Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), leverage, return on equity, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) pre-pandemic, and LDR, NPL, and return on assets during the pandemic. The IBAR Z-Score demonstrated high accuracy and sensitivity to systemic shocks, confirming its utility as an early warning tool. The results offer empirical support for regulators to enhance risk-based supervision and suggest incorporating macroeconomic indicators in future predictive models, contributing to both theory and practice in banking risk management.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jiakes

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Kesatuan (JIAKES) dikelola dan diterbitkan oleh Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM) Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan bekerjasama dengan Fakultas Bisnis dan Fakultas Vokasional IBI ...