Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science
Vol 5 No 2 (2025): Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science

Estimasi Waktu Berakhirnya Gempa Susulan Menggunakan Model Peluruhan Statistik: Studi Kasus Gempa Bumi Bawean 22 Maret 2024

Rajagukguk, Martha (Unknown)
Hielmy, Rayhan Irfan (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Mar 2026

Abstract

An earthquake struck Bawean Island on March 22, 2024 with a magnitude of 6.5 followed by a series of aftershocks. In this study, the decay of aftershocks in the Bawean region was analyzed from March 22 to March 31, 2024 using the Omori Method, Mogi I Method, Mogi II Method, and Utsu Method. The purpose of this research is to determine the duration of aftershock decay in Bawean and to identify the most suitable statistical method for predicting aftershock decay time in the region. The analyzed data were obtained from the BMKG earthquake repository. By applying the four methods, results were obtained in the form of aftershock decay duration and correlation coefficients for each method. The analysis shows that the most appropriate statistical methods for calculating aftershock decay time in Bawean are the Mogi I Method and the Utsu Method both producing a correlation coefficient of approximately -0.806 and an aftershock decay duration of 24 days consistent with the BMKG earthquake catalog data.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jocpes

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Physics

Description

Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science (JoCPES) publishes cutting-edge research in computational physics and earth sciences. It offers a platform for researchers to share insights on computational methods, physical sciences, environmental science, and more. Topics include computational ...