Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
2025: Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Sectoral Stock Resilience in Indonesia




Article Info

Publish Date
05 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) on sectoral stock indices in Indonesia, specifically the financial, energy, and consumer cyclical sectors within the framework of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Using monthly data from January 2021 to June 2025 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research examines both the short- and long-run relationships between GEPU, key macroeconomic variables, and sectoral stock performance. The findings reveal that GEPU exerts a negative and significant influence on the financial and energy sectors, indicating capital withdrawal and higher risk premiums during periods of global uncertainty. In contrast, the consumer cyclical sector shows a positive response, suggesting short-term resilience as domestic consumption rebounded in the post-pandemic recovery phase. These results highlight that each sector responds differently to external shocks through distinct transmission channels: financial intermediation, commodity pricing, and consumer sentiment. The evidence provides valuable insights for both investors and policymakers to identify resilient sectors and to design strategic responses that enhance market stability and support sustainable economic growth (SDG 8) in periods of heightened global uncertainty.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

iseth

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences Other

Description

The International Summit on Science, Technology and Humanity (ISETH) is organised by Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta. This summit aims to provide a platform for researchers and academics to share their research findings with others and meet lecturers and researchers from other institutions and to ...