Journal of Economics
Vol 6 No 1 (2026): April 2026

Determinan Gagal Bayar Peer-to-Peer Lending Bukti Empiris dari Jawa Barat dengan Pendekatan ARDL

Meysa Mariela Faradyas Zahra (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)
Ladi Wajuba Perdini Fisabilillah (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Apr 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the determinants of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending default in West Java Province using outstanding loan, number of borrowers, unemployment rate, and inflation as explanatory variables. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The results indicate that in the long run, outstanding loans, unemployment, and inflation have a positive and significant effect on default, while the number of borrowers has a negative and significant effect. In the short run, the dynamics of default show a pattern that is relatively consistent with the long-run relationship. These findings suggest that the default risk of P2P lending is influenced by a combination of credit expansion and regional macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, strengthening risk management and enhancing supervision over loan growth are essential to maintain the stability of digital financing.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

independent

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The scope of Independent: Journal of Economics are strictly but not limited to: Economics Development Economics Monetary Economics Public Economics Institutional ...