Comparative Analysis of DES-Brown and DES-Holt Methods in Forecasting the Stock Price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk

Rahman, Dela Juliarsih
Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura
Pangruruk, Thesya Atarezcha
Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah
Hasanah, Siti Hadijah

VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026)

This study aims to dermine the best forecasting method for the stock price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown and DES-Holt methods. The data used consist of stock prices from January 2019 to September 2025. The DES-Brown method employs a single parameter, while DES-Holt uses two parameters. Forecasting accuracy is evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the DES-Brown method with a smoothing parameter produces the smallest forecasting errors compared to the DES-Holt method, with MAD, RMSE , and MAPE . Therefore, it can be concluded that the DES-Brown method is the most suitable approach for forecasting the stock price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.