<![CDATA[Abstrak. Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dipengaruhi oleh dinamika variabel makroekonomi global yang bersifat fluktuatif, khususnya harga minyak, harga emas, dan nilai tukar. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh jangka panjang pendek dari ketiga variabel tersebut terhadap IHSG menggunakan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM) berdasarkan 2.438 data harian. Analisis dilakukan melalui tahapan uji stasioneritas, estimasi regresi jangka panjang, pengujian kointegrasi, serta estimasi model ECM untuk mengidentifikasi dinamika jangka pendek. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, harga emas, dan nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG dalam jangka panjang, yang mengindikasikan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel-variabel tersebut. Sementara itu, pada jangka pendek, hanya harga minyak yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap perubahan IHSG. Error Correction Term (ECT) bernilai negatif dan signifikan, yang menandakan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel makro global tersebut memiliki peran penting dalam menentukan pergerakan IHSG baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Kata kunci: IHSG, ECM, minyak, kurs, ECTAbstract. The movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is influenced by fluctuations in global macroeconomic variables, particularly oil prices, gold prices, and exchange rates. This study aims to analyze the long and short-term effects of these three variables on the IHSG using the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach based on 2,438 daily observations. The analysis was conducted through a series of procedures, including stationarity testing, long-run regression estimation, cointegration testing, and ECM estimation to identify short-run dynamics. The findings indicate that oil prices, gold prices, and exchange rates have a significant long-term impact on the IHSG, suggesting the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables. Meanwhile, in the short run, only oil prices were found to significantly influence changes in the IHSG. The Error Correction Term (ECT), which is negative and statistically significant, confirms the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium when deviations occur. These results demonstrate that global macroeconomic variables play an important role in shaping IHSG movements in both the short and long run.Keywords: IHSG, ECM, oil, exchange rate, ECT]]>
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