Specta Journal of Technology
Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Specta Journal of Technology

Analisis Strategi Hedging Risiko Investasi Menggunakan Kontrak Berjangka Indeks LQ45 Dengan Model OLS Dan DCC-GARCH

Syavirah, Auliah Juliana (Unknown)
Santoso, Eka Krisna (Unknown)
Indrawan (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Apr 2026

Abstract

Volatility in the LQ45 Index remains a key concern for investors in Indonesia's capital market, underscoring the need for effective risk management strategies. This study investigates the hedging effectiveness of LQ45 index futures by comparing two estimation methods for hedge ratios: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GARCH (DCC-GARCH). Using daily return data from 2021 to 2024, the analysis begins with stationarity testing and model diagnostics to ensure validity. Both models are estimated and evaluated based on their fit and statistical robustness. Hedging effectiveness is assessed by comparing portfolio variances before and after hedging, alongside statistical validation using F-tests and t-tests. Results show that both models offer risk reduction, but the DCC-GARCH model outperforms OLS by providing dynamic hedge ratios that better capture market volatility. The DCC-GARCH approach also satisfies all diagnostic criteria, indicating its statistical reliability and robustness. These findings highlight the relevance of dynamic hedging models in volatile markets and provide empirical support for integrating advanced econometric tools in risk management practices. The study contributes to the underexplored literature on index futures in emerging markets and offers valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to enhance derivative utilization in Indonesia.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sjt

Publisher

Subject

Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Environmental Science

Description

SPECTA journal is published by Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Balikpapann Indonesia. SPECTA is an open-access peer reviewed journal that mediates the dissemination of academicians, researchers, and practitioners in the field of Physics, ...