MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika
Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026)

MODELING THE GROSS ENROLLMENT RATIO BASED ON DETERMINING FACTORS THROUGH A MIXED-EFFECTS MODEL APPROACH IN INDONESIA: PEMODELAN ANGKA PARTISIPASI KASAR BERDASARKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU MELALUI PENDEKATAN MIXED-EFFECTS MODEL DI INDONESIA

Zhulmuhqsith Busrah (Unknown)
Anna Islamiyati (Unknown)
Erna Tri Herdiani (Unknown)
Danu Raihan Muhammad Faisal (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Apr 2026

Abstract

The Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) is a key indicator of access to formal education, yet substantial disparities across Indonesian provinces reflect variations in regional socio-economic conditions. This study analyzes the effects of Average Years of Schooling (AYS), Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita on GER using a Linear Mixed-Effects Model (LMM) based on provincial-level data. The results indicate that OUR has a positive and significant effect on GER (p < 0.001), suggesting that higher unemployment encourages individuals to pursue further education to improve labor market competitiveness. AYS shows a negative but statistically insignificant effect (p > 0.05), implying that educational attainment does not directly translate into increased new participation. GRDP per capita exhibits a positive and significant influence on GER (p < 0.05), highlighting the role of economic capacity in expanding educational access. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) of 0.63 indicates that 63% of the total variation in GER is attributable to provincial-level differences, supporting the appropriateness of the mixed-effects approach. Overall, the findings demonstrate that economic conditions and labor market dynamics are key determinants of educational participation and highlight the need for region-specific policies to address disparities in educational access.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

mathunesa

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

MATHunesa is a mathematical scientific journal published by the Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, The State University of Surabaya with e-ISSN 2716-506X and p-ISSN 2301-9115. This journal is published every four months in April, August, and December. One volume ...