<![CDATA[his study examines the predictive role of IT project governance maturity on delivery performance in public universities, a context that has received limited empirical attention. Despite the critical importance of governance in higher education IT projects, few studies have quantitatively explored how maturity levels influence cost, schedule, and quality outcomes. The research objective is to analyze the extent to which governance maturity predicts delivery performance, providing a conceptual and empirical foundation for optimizing IT project outcomes. A non-experimental, quantitative approach was adopted, primarily simulation-based data designed to approximate institutional project conditions, incorporating variables such as project size, complexity, and performance indicators. Governance maturity was assessed using established frameworks such as COBIT and PMMM, while inferential analysis employed multiple regression and path analysis to evaluate predictive relationships. The findings indicate that governance maturity significantly predicts delivery performance, with higher maturity levels associated with improved project outcomes, while project complexity negatively affects performance in institutions with lower governance capability. Project size showed no significant effect, highlighting governance quality as the primary determinant of delivery success. These results offer practical implications for university IT managers, suggesting that investment in structured policies, formal monitoring mechanisms, and clear decision authority can enhance project outcomes. The study provides a preliminary predictive model that can support data-informed decision-making and serve as a reference point for future research in higher education IT governance. Findings should be interpreted as exploratory due to the use of simulation-based data.]]>
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