Polit Journal
Vol 5 No 4 (2025): Polit Journal: Scientific Journal of Politics, November

Modeling Conflict Resolution in Ethiopian Social Networks (2015–2025): A Statistical Physics Approach to Stability and Equilibrium Dynamics

Belay Sitotaw Goshu (Department of Physics, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia)
Muhammad Ridwan (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
12 Feb 2026

Abstract

Ethiopia’s social networks from 2015 to 2025 have been marked by ethnic tensions and conflict, necessitating strategies to enhance stability and cohesion. This study aims to identify key factors influencing stability in Ethiopian social networks and propose data-driven strategies for conflict resolution. A small-world network with 100 nodes was simulated using the Ising model at (T = 0.5), with sensitivity analysis varying rewiring probabilities (p = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2) and external influence (h = 0.0, 0.1, 0.3) over 5000 iterations. Simulated empirical data included influence scores and edge weights, reflecting real-world dynamics. High clustering (0.45 at (p = 0.05) correlated with stability, while high (h) (0.3) reduced stability by 12%. Clustering-magnetization correlations ranged from 0.8016 (h = 0.0) to -0.9665 (h = 0.3), and betweenness-magnetization correlations shifted from 0.4639 to -0.7603, highlighting external influence’s disruptive effect. Clustering drives stability, but excessive external influence undermines it, as seen in Ethiopia’s conflict patterns. Policymakers should strengthen local networks and minimize external interventions to enhance cohesion.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

polit

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Subject

Description

Polit Journal is Scientific Journal of Politics is an international journal using a peer-reviewed process published in February, May, August and November by Britain International for Academic Research Publisher (BIAR-Publisher). Polit welcomes research papers in politics, parliamentary, political ...