Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

Bayesian Hierarchical and Decomposition Analysis of Pregnancy-Related Mortality in Nigeria Using NDHS 2018-2023/24

S.O, Adeyemo (Unknown)
E.U, Ohaegbulam (Unknown)
P, Duruojinkeya (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
16 May 2026

Abstract

Nigeria continues to face one of the highest burdens of pregnancy-related mortality globally, yet recent measurement evidence remains constrained by gaps in direct reporting. This policy and measurement note examines the availability of direct sibling-history estimates in the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS), with particular attention to the absence of an updated pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRMR) in the 2023–24 reporting cycle. The NDHS 2018 reported a national PRMR of 512 per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 447–578). However, the NDHS 2023–24 Key Indicators and Summary Reports do not publish an updated sibling-history-based PRMR, thereby limiting direct assessment of mortality trends. Proxy indicators suggest modest progress, including a decline in the total fertility rate from 5.3 to 4.8 and an increase in skilled birth attendance from 43% to 46%, although rural–urban and zonal disparities persist. Exploratory Bayesian hierarchical modeling using NDHS 2023–24 microdata produced an illustrative national PRMR estimate of approximately 462 per 100,000 live births (CrI: 392–532), suggesting a possible modest decline, while rural estimates remain high at approximately 612. The findings indicate that the absence of a published direct PRMR weakens evidence-based monitoring of SDG 3.1 and limits independent assessment of progress in reducing pregnancy-related mortality. This note contributes to policy measurement by highlighting the need for routine inclusion of sibling-derived PRMR estimates in future DHS reports, alongside microdata access to support independent verification and more equitable maternal health planning.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

MJMS

Publisher

Subject

Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering

Description

The journal contains scientific articles covering topics such as mathematical theory, statistical methods, the application of mathematics in various disciplines, and statistical data analysis. The primary objective of this journal is to promote a better understanding of mathematical and statistical ...