Journal of Digital Market and Digital Currency
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): Regular Issue June 2026

A Hybrid SARIMAX–LSTM Framework for Predicting Price Volatility in High-Tech Digital Markets: Evidence from NVIDIA

Flurey Martin (School of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, University of Essex, United Kingdom)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 May 2026

Abstract

This study develops a Hybrid SARIMAX–LSTM model to improve the accuracy and robustness of stock price forecasting in digital and volatile financial markets. The model combines the linear and seasonal forecasting strengths of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) with the nonlinear learning capability of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Using historical data from NVDIA Corporation, the hybrid framework was optimized through smart weighting to balance the contribution of both components. The results show that the model achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 8.59 and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9166, indicating that over 91 percent of price variance was accurately explained. Residual analysis confirmed unbiased predictions with normally distributed errors, demonstrating high stability and adaptability under volatile market conditions. Compared with individual models, the hybrid approach produced smoother and more consistent forecasts. Overall, the Hybrid SARIMAX–LSTM framework offers an interpretable and reliable tool for digital market forecasting and AI-based financial decision-making.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

JDMDC

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Journal of Digital Market and Digital Currency publishes high-quality research on: Digital Marketing Digital Currencies Cryptocurrency Trends Blockchain Applications Fintech Innovations Our goal is to provide a platform for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to share innovative findings, ...