Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF)
Vol. 7 No. 3 (2026): JUTIF Volume 7, Number 3, June 2026

Global Inflation Forecasting Using Stacking Ensemble with Elastic Net Meta-Learner Integrating Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM

Fauriza Wildhani (Information System, STIKOM Tunas Bangsa, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia)
Anjar Wanto (Department of Informatics Magister’s, STIKOM Tunas Bangsa, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia)
Irfan Sudahri Damanik (Department of Informatics Magister’s, STIKOM Tunas Bangsa, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Jun 2026

Abstract

Inflation dynamics have become increasingly complex due to economic volatility and nonlinear interactions, challenging the reliability of conventional forecasting models; therefore, this study develops a robust global inflation forecasting framework using a hybrid stacking ensemble that integrates Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM as base learners with Elastic Net as a regularized meta-learner, applied to annual inflation data from 2000–2024 across five major economic blocs (G7, Europe, BRICS, ASEAN, and the Americas) after temporal feature engineering and time-series–preserving validation; the results demonstrate strong and consistent predictive performance, with very high accuracy in Europe (R² = 0.9282) and the G7 (R² = 0.9122), and the globally trained stacking model (R² = 0.7866) substantially outperforming the region-specific ASEAN model (R² = 0.5243), confirming the advantage of cross-country learning; this research advances informatics and computer science by providing a scalable and stable ensemble learning framework for macroeconomic time-series forecasting in volatile environments, supporting the development of AI-driven economic and policy analytics systems.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

jurnal

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) is an Indonesian national journal, publishes high-quality research papers in the broad field of Informatics, Information Systems and Computer Science, which encompasses software engineering, information system development, computer systems, computer network, ...