Integrasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri
Vol 11 No 1 (2026): Integrasi : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri

An Integrated Markov Chain–Fuzzy AHP Framework for Workforce Planning and Turnover Driver Prioritization: A Case Study at PT X

Rahman Soesilo (Universitas Muhammadiyah A.R. Fachruddin)
Adelia Dwi Valentin (Universitas Muhammadiyah AR Fachrudin)
Fitriana Hisnainy Latifah (Universitas Muhammadiyah AR Fachrudin)
Salsabila Al Ghifari (Universitas Muhammadiyah AR Fachrudin)



Article Info

Publish Date
12 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study aims to develop an integrated workforce planning framework by combining the Markov Chain method and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) at PT X, a manufacturing company with relatively high employee turnover. Historical workforce data from 2020–2023 were used to construct inter-grade transition patterns, while assessments from 15 experts were used to prioritize turnover drivers. The Markov Chain method was applied to project workforce distribution and compare it with workforce requirements based on 2024–2025 production targets. The projection results indicate potential workforce shortages of 28 employees in 2024 and 77 employees in 2025 if transition and turnover patterns remain unchanged. The Fuzzy AHP results show that external factors have the highest weight of 0.845, with individual motivation as the dominant sub-criterion, having a local weight of 0.803 and a global weight of 0.679. These findings suggest that integrating Markov Chain and Fuzzy AHP can support decision-making in estimating workforce needs while determining priority areas for retention strategies. The contribution of this study lies in the integrative application of both methods in a case-based manufacturing workforce planning context.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

integrasi

Publisher

Subject

Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

Description

Integrasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri is a industrial journal published by Universitas Muhammadiyah Palembang. the content of Integrasi as follow: Ergonomic Production Planning and Inventory Control Product Design and Development Logistics & Supply Chain Management Data Mining & Artificial ...