Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan
Vol 10, No 1 (2026): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan

Transmission Dynamics Model of Scabies in Islamic Boarding Schools

David Prasetyo (Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia)
Sunarsih Sunarsih (Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia)
Sutrisno Sutrisno (Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 May 2026

Abstract

Scabies continues to pose a major public health challenge in densely populated congregate settings such as Islamic boarding schools (pesantren) in Indonesia. This study develops a stage structured - - -  compartmental model (Susceptible, Early-stage Infected, Late-stage Infected, Recovered) that explicitly accounts for differences in mite burden, infectivity, and recovery rates between early and late-stage infections. Using qualitative analysis of the nonlinear differential equations, the basic reproduction number ( ) was derived via the Next Generation Matrix method, and stability analysis was performed. Results show that the diseasefree equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable when . Under baseline parameters, , with late-stage infections accounting for approximately 88.3% of total transmission. Due to the model’s assumptions of a closed population and permanent immunity, no biologically meaningful endemic equilibrium exists; once the infection runs its course, the disease eventually dies out as susceptibles are exhausted. Sensitivity analysis highlights that reducing the late-stage transmission rate ( ) and increasing the early-stage recovery rate ( ) are the most effective intervention targets. This model provides a rigorous theoretical framework to guide evidencebased scabies control strategies in high-density residential institutions.

Copyrights © 2026