Trends in Mechanical Engineering Research
Vol 3, No 2 (2025): December

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF BEARING FAILURE TIME USING THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH

Syarif Abdullah (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa.)
Himmatul Mursyidah (Department of Informatics, Universitas Muhammadiyah Banten, Indonesia)
Mekro Permana Pinem (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa, Indonesia)
Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga, Indonesia)
Miftahul Huda (Department of Statistics, Universitas Bina Bangsa, Indonesia)
Fajri Ikhsan (Department of Chemistry, Universitas Negeri Padang, Padang, Indonesia)
Agung Satrio Wicaksono (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa.)
Reka Pandu Anggara (Department of Statistics, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Dec 2025

Abstract

This paper introduces a hagoslot stochastic model to investigate the failure times of bearings based on a two-parameter Weibull distribution utilizing Monte Carlo simulation. The failure times were fitted based on maximum likelihood estimation, and the parameters showed that the wear-out failure type with an increasing hazard rate (β>1) was corresponding to the fatigue-induced breakdown phenomenon in the rolling bearings. A Monte Carlo simulation with 1000 runs was performed to quantify the uncertainty of lifetime predictions, which have presented relatively high spreads but stable central tendencies in the Weibull parameter estimates. Survival analysis and hazard function showed increasing probability of failure with time, indicative of the need for prognosis-based maintenance. The findings demonstrate that the Weibull model is a reliable and interpretable paradigm that can be used to describe the probabilistic nature of mechanical component failure. The presented modeling strategy is appropriate for both engineering purposes and simulation-based reliability analyses, possibly evolved into a mixture-Weibull representation or data-driven parameter estimation.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

timer

Publisher

Subject

Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

Description

TiMER: Trends in Mechanical Engineering Research is a blind-peer-review journal. TiMER mainly focuses on Mechanical Engineering fields. Detailed scopes of articles accepted for submission to TiMER are Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Environmen; Fuel Technology; Material Mechanics; Biomaterial; ...