AI and Developmental Insights in Education (AIDIE)
Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): AI and Developmental Insights in Education

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Student Vulnerability to Academic Stress in AI-Integrated Learning Environments

Alvina Desya Ramadhani (Universitas Lampung)
David Naista (UIN Raden Intan Lampung)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2026

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are increasingly embedded in higher education, yet their relationship with students’ academic stress remains insufficiently established. This study developed and internally evaluated machine learning (ML) models for classifying academic stress vulnerability among 441 undergraduate students enrolled in AI-integrated courses at three Indonesian public universities. Using a quantitative cross-sectional predictive design, data were collected through psychometric scales, institutional GPA records, and LMS behavioral indicators. Four supervised classifiers, Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine with radial basis kernel (SVM-RBF), and Logistic Regression (LR), were compared using stratified train-test evaluation and five-fold cross-validation within the training data. GB achieved the strongest held-out performance (accuracy = .846, macro-F1 = .840, AUC-ROC = .930). Permutation importance indicated that cognitive load, AI literacy, and digital fatigue contributed most to classification performance. Subgroup AUC comparisons showed no significant differences across gender and discipline, although this should be interpreted cautiously. External validation and ethical governance are required before operational deployment.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

aidie

Publisher

Subject

Description

Focus and Scope of AI and Developmental Insights in Education AIDIE AI and Developmental Insights in Education AIDIE is an international peer reviewed journal that focuses on the integration of Artificial Intelligence AI in educational settings with a particular emphasis on its implications for ...