Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Tsunami Hazards in South Seram Island, Indonesia: A Case Study on Kairatu Fault

Teddy Dwi Riadi (Postgraduate Student, Marine Science Study Program, Pattimura University Postgraduate, Indonesia)
Simon Tubalawony (Marine Science Study Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Pattimura University, Indonesia)
Yunita Angnetije Noya (Marine Science Study Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Pattimura University, Indonesia)
Verry Bambang Sakiran (Engineering Profesional Program Study Program, Faculty of Engineering, Katolik Widya Mandala Surabaya University, Indonesia)

Maritime Park: Journal Of Maritime Technology and Socienty
Volume 5, Issue 2, 2026

This study aims to analyze the potential for tsunamis caused by tectonic activity along the Kairatu Fault and to evaluate inundation patterns based on numerical modeling results using the COMCOT software. The Kairatu Fault is an active structure in the western part of Seram, with the potential to generate significant earthquakes and trigger tsunamis around Piru Bay and the waters of Ambon. Modeling was conducted using bathymetry data, earthquake source parameters, and seafloor deformation derived from the Okada model. Tsunami simulations were performed to estimate the maximum wave height, wave arrival time, and wave energy distribution along the coastline. Simulation results indicate that the southern coastal areas of Seram and the western coast of Ambon are highly vulnerable to inundation, with wave heights reaching 2–3 m and arrival times around 15–25 min after the earthquake event. Based on these modeling results, it is recommended that the early warning system and coastal spatial planning be strengthened to support tsunami disaster mitigation efforts in the area.