Small Area Estimation of Child Poverty on Java Island In 2021 (Comparison of EBLUP and Hierarchical Bayes)

Nofita Istiana (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia)
Erwin Tanur (Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia)
Azka Ubaidillah (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia)
Yuliana Ria Uli Sitanggang (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia)
Rosalinda Nainggolan (Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia)

Inferensi
Vol 8 No 3 (2025)

Information about child poverty is very important to ensure that children get their rights. Indonesia's decentralized system requires child poverty data in each district/city. Data provision at this level is constrained by a non-specific sample design used for certain age groups, so the sample age group for children is not always sufficient for each district/city. Therefore, direct estimation produces a high relative standard error (RSE), so it requires small area estimation (SAE). SAE that is often used is EBLUP, which assumes that the variable of interest is normally distributed. Child poverty data does not meet the normality assumption, so SAE with Hierarchical Bayes with Beta distribution (HB Beta) is proposed in this study. The result is direct estimation, EBLUP, and HB Beta produce relatively similar estimated values, but HB Beta has the lowest RSE.