International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling (IJQRM)

Bankruptcy Probability Modeling Using Integro-Differential Equations With Gamma Distributed Claims

Lulu Ulmufidah (Unknown)
Agung Prabowo (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)
Niken Larasati (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Jul 2026

Abstract

This study aims to model and analyze the ruin probability of an insurance company using an integro-differential equation under the assumption that claim sizes follow a Gamma distribution. The research method employed is a literature study, conducted by reviewing relevant books and scientific articles. The modeling process is carried out using an integro-differential equation and simplifying it into the form of a homogeneous linear differential equation. Numerical computations are performed using Python programming, and the results are presented in tables and graphs to facilitate analysis. The model is developed in four cases based on variations in the parameters of the Gamma distribution. The results show that the ruin probability decreases as the initial capital and premium loading increase, and increases as the expected value of claims rises. Therefore, an increase in the insurance company’s surplus will reduce the risk of ruin.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijqrm

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Environmental Science Physics

Description

International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling (IJQRM) is published 4 times a year and is the flagship journal of the Research Collaboration Community (RCC). It is the aim of IJQRM to present papers which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of Quatitative Research (QR) ...