Al-Muqayyad
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Al-Muqayyad

Pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, suku bunga, dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 2012–2024 ditinjau dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam

Sinta Tri Utami (Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Indonesia)
Muhammad Iqbal (Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Indonesia)
M. Yusuf Bahtiar (Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of money supply, interest rates, and inflation on economic growth in Indonesia for the 2012-2024 period using the VECM with quarterly data of 52 observations. The cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship among the variables. In the long run, inflation has a significant effect on GDP, while money supply has a negative but very small effect, and interest rates have no significant effect. Overall, the three monetary variables collectively contribute less than 1% to GDP variations, thus they are not the main factors driving economic growth. The policy implications of these findings include the need to prioritize inflation control and reevaluate the effectiveness of interest rate instruments and money supply expansion in promoting growth. The contribution of this research lies in using a study period that covers various economic shocks (taper tantrum, pandemic, and recovery) and applying the VECM method capable of separating short-run and long-run effects. From the perspective of Islamic economics, these findings support the principles of distributive justice and the prohibition of usury (riba), as interest-based instruments prove ineffective, making the development of Sharia-based monetary policy through profit-sharing schemes a more relevant and equitable alternative.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

al-muqayyad

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

AL MUQAYYAD adalah Jurnal Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah STAI Auliaurrasyidin Tembilahan yang memuat tentang hasil penelitian, gagasan konseptual, review buku baru, studi naskah dibidang ekonomi keislaman dan keilmuan. Jurnal Al Muqayyad diharapakan mampu menjadi wadah bagi dosen dan praktisi ekonomi ...