PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI MONITORING DAN FORECASTING PASOKAN SERTA KEBUTUHAN BERAS BERBASIS WEB DI DINAS PANGAN KOTA TOMOHON : DEVELOPMENT OF A WEB-BASED RICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND MONITORING AND FORECASTING INFORMATION SYSTEM AT THE TOMOHON CITY FOOD SERVICE

Kristofel Santa (Universitas Negeri Manado)

RABIT: Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Univrab
Vol 11 No 2 (2026): Juli

The management of rice supply and demand data is a crucial aspect of maintaining regional food security stability. However, at the Tomohon City Food Security Agency, data recording and processing are still conducted semi-manually, leading to potential information delays. This study aims to develop a web-based information system for monitoring and forecasting rice supply and demand to support effective data-driven decision-making. The system development follows the Waterfall model, while the forecasting method utilizes the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) applied to monthly historical data from 2023 to 2025. The system features data management, trend visualization, and an automatic prediction module. The results demonstrate that the system provides real-time information and generates highly accurate predictions, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.84%. This confirms that the ARIMA method is highly effective for short-term forecasting in the regional food sector.