Journal of International Conference Proceedings
Vol 9, No 1 (2026): 2026 Dili ICPM Proceeding

Do Sectoral Stock Indices Predict Sectoral Economic Growth? :A Systematic Literature Review of Evidence for Mixed Frequency Forecasting in Emerging Markets

Muhammad Ardi Ardi (Program Doktoral (S3) Universitas Negeri Gorontalo, Institut Agama Islam Negeri Gorontalo)
Fahrudin Zain Olilingo (Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)
RAFLIN HINELO (Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)
ROBIYATI PODUNGGE (Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Jul 2026

Abstract

This study systematically reviews the literature on the ability of sectoral stock indices to predict sectoral economic growth, particularly using mixed-frequency forecasting approaches in emerging markets. The issue is important because stock markets operate at high frequencies (daily or weekly), while sectoral economic indicators—such as industrial output, sectoral GDP, and production indices—are typically available at lower frequencies (monthly, quarterly, or annually). This mismatch creates both methodological challenges and analytical opportunities in integrating financial and real-sector data. Using a systematic literature review, the study synthesizes theories of market efficiency, the relationship between finance and economic growth, and the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach. The literature indicates that stock prices may contain forward-looking information related to profit expectations, sectoral demand, financing conditions, and investor sentiment. However, empirical evidence at the sectoral level in emerging markets remains mixed due to differences in market structures, macroeconomic volatility, uneven liquidity, and data limitations.The study concludes that integrating sectoral stock indices with economic indicators through mixed-frequency models offers valuable contributions to macro-financial forecasting, although further sector-specific and country-specific empirical research is still needed..  Keywords: sectoral stock indices; economic growth, mixed-frequency, MIDAS; emerging markets; forecasting; macro-financial.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JICP

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media

Description

JICP is proceedings series that aims to publish proceedings from conferences, in the fields of economics, business, and management research. All proceedings in this website are open access, which means the published articles are permanently free to read, download, copy, and distribute. The online ...