CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI

Dynamic Analysis of a Modified SETPR Terrorism Model Incorporating Recidivism of Imprisoned Terrorists

Achla Fauziyah (Universitas Islam Negeri Walisongo Semarang)
Zulaikha Zulaikha (Universitas Islam Negeri Walisongo Semarang)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Nov 2026

Abstract

Terrorism poses a serious threat to national security, particularly when former terrorist inmates return to active duty due to the failure of deradicalization programs. This study modifies the $SETPR$ model by adding a direct recidivism path from the imprisoned compartment (\(P\)) to the active terrorist compartment (\(T\)) via the parameter \(k\). This model consists of five subpopulations: the susceptible (\(S\)), the exposed (\(E\)), active terrorists (\(T\)), imprisoned (\(P\)), and subpopulation that has ceased terrorist activities (\(R\)). The basic reproduction number is given by \(\mathcal{R}_0,\) which is derived using the next-generation matrix method and serves as a threshold parameter for the spread of terrorism. Local stability analysis shows that the terrorism-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if \(\mathcal{R}_0 1\), while the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if \(\mathcal{R}_0 1\). Numerical simulations using Matlab R2013a and Maple 11 show that when \(\mathcal{R}_0 = 0.0039 1\), the system converges to the terrorism-free equilibrium, meaning terrorism will become extinct. Conversely, with \(\mathcal{R}_0 = 5.8535 1\), the system is stable at the endemic equilibrium, indicating that terrorism persists at a positive level. These results show that it is important to control key parameters through integrated intervention strategies, so that the \(\mathcal{R}_0\) value can be reduced below unity.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Math

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal CAUCHY secara berkala terbit dua (2) kali dalam setahun. Redaksi menerima tulisan ilmiah hasil penelitian, kajian kepustakaan, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan di bidang Matematika (Aljabar, Analisis, Statistika, Komputasi, dan Terapan). Naskah yang diterima akan dikilas (review) oleh ...