Journal of Applied Data Sciences
Vol 7, No 3: September 2026

Determinants of Stock Volatility of Indonesian State-Owned Enterprises on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: A Panel-Data Modelling Approach with Firm Size as a Moderating Variable

I Dewa Made Tirta Meirsha ("Postgraduate Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Jakarta")
I Gusti Ketut Agung Ulupui ("Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Jakarta")
Adler Haymans Manurung ("Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta")



Article Info

Publish Date
20 Jul 2026

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of stock-price volatility among Indonesian State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and tests whether Firm Size (FS) moderates these relationships. Five groups of explanatory features are integrated into a single model: macro fundamentals (MF), micro fundamentals (MiF), capital structure measured by Government Funding (GF), Stock-Market Volatility (SMV), and Market Liquidity (ML). Using a balanced panel of 24 listed SOEs over 2019–2024 (144 firm-year observations), model selection across common-, fixed-, and random-effects specifications identifies the Common Effects Model (CEM) as the most appropriate. The model is jointly significant (Prob. F = 0.0001) and explains 40.37% of the variation in volatility (R2 = 0.4037). The findings reveal that inflation (β = -29.412, p = 0.022), the debt-to-equity ratio (β = -0.9996, p = 0.035), return on assets (β = -1.6373, p = 0.011), and government funding (β = -0.0197, p = 0.002) each significantly and negatively shape stock volatility. Broad market volatility and trading volume are statistically insignificant. Furthermore, firm size significantly moderates the exchange rate effect (β = 5.1933, p = 0.003) and the return on assets effect (β = -0.4727, p = 0.023). This paper contributes to literature by offering a unified, data-driven framework and extending efficient-market, behavioural-finance, and trade-off theories to state ownership, demonstrating that state-backed funding acts as a stabilizing capital component rather than a risk driver. Practical recommendations for the Ministry of SOEs include establishing performance-linked funding benchmarks and public-service account separation to mitigate market distortions and stock volatility.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

JADS

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

Description

One of the current hot topics in science is data: how can datasets be used in scientific and scholarly research in a more reliable, citable and accountable way? Data is of paramount importance to scientific progress, yet most research data remains private. Enhancing the transparency of the processes ...