Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics
Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): JULI-DESEMBER 2025

Investor Attention from Google Trends and CPI Inflation Rate in the Philippines

Janna Paro Janna Paro (Researcher)
Alyssa Ashley G. Odchigue (Unknown)
Karl P. Campos (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Jul 2026

Abstract

This quantitative research study examined whether investor attention can empirically explain and forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the Philippines. Thus, it addresses gaps in previous research by examining whether investor attention, as measured by Google Trends, influences and potentially forecasts inflation in the Philippines' Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate. Using Granger causality tests and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model on monthly data from 2004 to 2025, the study reveals that inflation persistence is the leading cause of current inflation rates. The results show that fluctuations in the oil price have a significant but temporary effect on inflation in the Philippines, which is primarily caused by its persistence. In comparison, investor attention shows only delayed and inconsistent effects on inflation, lacking robust predictive capability.   This shows how investor attention affects inflation by influencing inflation expectations. However, the empirical results rejected every hypothesis in this study: investor attention neither significantly explains nor reliably forecasts inflation, nor does it systematically influence inflation via expectations.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jeba

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

JEBA merupakan jurnal yang diterbitkan oleh Sekolah Pasca Sarjana Universitas YARSI (SPSUY). Jurnal ini diterbitkan secara bekala sebagai wadah untuk mengkomunikasikan hasil-hasil penelitian konsep dan empiris di bidang ekonomi dan keuangan serta memberikan perhatian yang besar kepada pengembangan ...