Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan
Vol. 28 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of Bali Airport Considering Earthquake Effects

Fazli Elahi (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Hanindya Kusuma Artati (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Achmed Pusha Agung (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Vinda Nurul Hidayatul Aiman (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Mohammad Subhan Rehman (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Irfan Ullah (Universitas Islam Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Jul 2026

Abstract

I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali is a critical national infrastructure located in a region of high seismicity driven by the Indo-Australian–Eurasian plate convergence. Despite the availability of national-level hazard maps, no site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard study incorporating local soil amplification has previously been conducted for this facility. This study performs site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) using EZ-FRISK, one-dimensional non-linear soil amplification analysis using DEEPSOIL V7, and spectral matching of ground motions from the PEER NGA database to represent Bali seismic conditions. Historical earthquake data (Mw 4.0–9.0, 1900–2025) within a 500 km radius were compiled from the USGS catalog. Earthquake recurrence was characterized using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The Atkinson and Boore (2003) GMPE was applied for subduction sources. Bedrock PGA was determined at a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period = 2,475 years). Site response analysis was performed using N-SPT-derived shear-wave velocity profiles. Bedrock PGA is 0.308 g (design value 0.206 g after 2/3 factor). After nonlinear soil amplification, the surface PGA reaches 0.800 g, a 2.6-fold amplification, indicating a severe surface hazard. Hazard deaggregation identifies a dominant scenario earthquake of Mw 5.95 at 23.86 km. This is the first integrated PSHA study combining bedrock hazard, soil amplification, and spectral matching for Bali Airport, providing site-specific ground-motion parameters critical for earthquake-resistant structural design and liquefaction risk assessment at this strategically vital facility.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jtsp

Publisher

Subject

Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

Description

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