Jurnal Gaussian
Vol 14, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gaussian

PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DENGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN DAN CHENG

Marselinus Tolhas Gratias Lumbanbatu (Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Undip)
Puspita Kartikasari (Unknown)
Deby Fakhriyana (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Nov 2025

Abstract

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is an index that measures the performance of all stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. JCI can be used as one of the indicators used by investors to determine the movement of stocks in the Indonesian capital market. Decisions made by investors will have a stronger basis if forecasting is done. Investors can decide to exit the market or enter the market. The forecasting method used to forecast the JCI value in this study is Fuzzy Time Series (FTS). This method has advantages compared to other time series methods, where the FTS method does not require the fulfillment of classical assumptions as in ARIMA.  Both forecasting methods will apply the Sturges and Average Based formulas in determining the class. The data used in this study is the JCI closing data on March 1, 2022 - March 1, 2023. The data is divided into two categories with 239 data as training data, namely data on March 1, 2022 - February 15, 2023 and 10 data as testing data, namely data on February 16 - March 1, 2023. The forecasting accuracy measure used in this study is sMAPE. Among the four forecasting methods, the best forecasting method is Cheng's Fuzzy Time Series method by applying the Sturges formula in determining the number of classes with an sMAPE value on testing data is 0.37%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

gaussian

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM ...