IIJSE
Vol 9 No 2 (2026): Sharia Economics

Analysis of Stock Price Volatility in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) During the Implementation of the Trump Tariff Policy in 2025

Ibnu Naufal Fuad Nurudin Fadhillah (UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia)
Imam Tantowi (UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia)
Acep Rahmat (UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia)
Saepulloh Saepulloh (UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia)
Alfan Rohibani (UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
12 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the phenomenon of the reciprocal tariff policy, also known as the Trump Tariff, enacted by the United States in 2025, and the response of Islamic capital market participants to this global event, observed through stock price volatility in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). A descriptive quantitative approach was employed to explain the results by presenting the collected data as they are, without attempting to draw generalizable conclusions. The data analysis methods used include the calculation of daily logarithmic returns, estimation of historical volatility using a 7-day rolling standard deviation, identification of tariff policy announcement dates in 2025, and visual interpretation of volatility pattern changes around that period in the observed market conditions. The results indicate that the Indonesian Islamic stock market (JII) experienced significant price fluctuations during the period of the new tariff policy under President Trump. Daily returns showed a negative tendency with an asymmetric distribution, reflecting market uncertainty in responding to global dynamics. The highest level of volatility occurred in April 2025, suggesting that the market reacted to global economic issues through increased price instability. This study demonstrates that external conditions such as tariff policies can influence market psychology and stability, even if not proven causally.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

iijse

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) is Sharia Economics Journal published by Sharia Economics Department Institut Pesantren KH. Abdul Chalim, Mojokerto. The Journal focuses on the issues of Sharia Economics, the History of Islamic Economic Thought, Islamic Law, Local ...