Jurnal Presipitasi : Media Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Teknik Lingkungan
Vol 23, No 2 (2026): July 2026

Integrated Hydrological–Empirical Modeling for Lake Water Balance Estimation in a Data-Scarce Volcanic Catchment

Lintang Nur Fadlillah (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Afifudin Afifudin (the University of Melbourne)
Firdaus Rakhman Saputra (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Sri Utami (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Kim Deong Hyeon (Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Jul 2026

Abstract

Menjer Lake has undergone various human interventions, such as land use change and hydropower consumption, but has no water level monitoring data in its small catchment area of 2.7 km² and steep morphology. Thus, the objective of this study was to integrate a hydrological model with an empirical model to estimate the water balance of a lake in a data-scarce catchment. The results indicate that the runoff model for an ungauged river demonstrates the good performance of the hydrological model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on its similarity to observed rainfall (R² = 0.93). However, the lake water balance is very complex because of multiple input and output sources. Moreover, land-use change had no significant impact on runoff, as no anomaly was found in the runoff model results. Under existing conditions, artificial inflow plays a significant role in the water balance input and output of Menjer Lake. The artificial inflow covered 76% of the water input, with an outflow of 12.3%, preventing any deficit phase. Overall, this study underscores the importance of considering manual calibration with rainfall data in data-scarce areas. The good correlation between rainfall-runoff shows that this model is also acceptable

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