Mathematical And Data Analytics
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Artikel Riset Juni 2026

Implementation of Bidirectional LSTMs for Predicting BTC Prices

Cahyo Adi Nugroho (MSc in Financial Engineering, WorldQuant University, USA)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Jun 2026

Abstract

Forecasting Bitcoin (BTC) prices is difficult due to persistent volatility, the dominance of market sentiment, and non-linear regime-dependent dynamics. This paper implements a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) framework to predict short-horizon BTC movements using an hourly BTC/USD dataset. The experiment models the 25-hour-ahead return (as a proxy for near-term price change) from a compact set of return-derived predictors: the current hourly return and cumulative rolling returns over 10 and 50 hours. Inputs and outputs are scaled via MinMax normalization, converted into fixed-length sequences (window size 30), and learned by a stacked BiLSTM network trained with Adam optimization, mean absolute error loss, and early stopping. Evaluation is conducted using an out-of-sample R-squared benchmarked against the training mean return, complemented by a sign-based trading backtest (long when predicted return is positive; short otherwise). Results show negative out-of-sample predictive power and weak trading performance, although the strategy loss is smaller than buy-and-hold on the tested segment. Overall, under the fixed architecture and hyperparameters examined, BiLSTM does not demonstrate a clear advantage over the referenced unidirectional configuration in the period tested and highlights the sensitivity of high-capacity sequence models to feature design and hyperparameter tuning in highly noisy crypto markets.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

mda

Publisher

Subject

Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Immunology & microbiology Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics

Description

Jurnal Mathematical and Data Analytics merupakan dua bidang yang saling terkait dan sering digunakan bersama untuk mengolah informasi. Matematika memberikan dasar teoritis dan alat untuk pemodelan dan analisis data. Ini melibatkan konsep seperti statistika, kalkulus, aljabar, dan teori bilangan. ...