Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Vol. 23 No. 02 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

The Influence of Monetary Indicators on the Inflation Rate in Indonesia for the 2020-2024 Period Using the Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Shafa Salsabila Dewi (Development Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)
Gita Asri Rani (Development Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)
Rhevaira Kayla Zhafirah (Development Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Dec 2025

Abstract

This study examines the influence of monetary indicators on inflation in Indonesia during 2020–2024 using the Vector Error Correction Model. The variables analyzed include the BI Rate, money supply, and the exchange rate. Monthly time series data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia and the One Data Trade Portal of the Ministry of Trade to strengthen the empirical foundation. The results show that in the short run, only the exchange rate significantly affects inflation, while the BI Rate and money supply show no significant impact. In the long run, money supply and the exchange rate were found to influence inflation significantly, whereas the BI Rate remained insignificant. These findings suggest that real monetary conditions and external stability drive Indonesia's inflation dynamics more than interest rate policy. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability and managing liquidity are crucial for sustaining price stability and improving the overall effectiveness of monetary policy in the long term.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jep

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal ekonomi pembangunan published by Pusat Pengkajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik (PPEKP), Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Muhammadiyah Malang. This journal is used as a source of information about scientific works in the field of development economics for every academician, ...