<![CDATA[Understanding carbon sink dynamics at local administrative scales is essential for developing effective climate mitigation and urban planning strategies in rapidly urbanizing coastal regions. However, existing studies have largely focused on broader regional scales, providing limited insights into local spatial heterogeneity and governance-relevant carbon management. This study investigates carbon sink profiles and their determinants in the Samarinda Metropolitan Area (SMA), Indonesia, using 34 sub-districts and 289 urban villages as analytical units. Carbon sinks were estimated using Net Primary Production (NPP) data, while Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were applied to examine global and local spatial relationships. The results reveal significant spatial clustering of carbon sinks at both sub-district (Moran’s I = 0.277, p = 0.003) and urban village levels (Moran’s I = 0.099, p < 0.001). The urban village model demonstrated superior performance (R² = 0.669) compared with the sub-district model (R² = 0.526). Forest cover (β = 1.020) and wetness (β = 0.225) positively influenced carbon sinks, whereas elevation (β = −0.112) and NDVI (β = −0.131) exhibited negative effects. GWR results identified forest as the strongest determinant (R² = 0.949). Effective local carbon management can enhance ecosystem services, strengthen environmental resilience, reduce climate-related economic risks, and support sustainable urban economic development. These findings support spatially targeted planning interventions, including forest conservation, wetland restoration, and blue carbon governance in coastal metropolitan regions.]]>
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